Trading Time Machine Presents
Bear Hunter
Your portfolio handles the good times.
Bear Hunter handles the hard ones.
A rules-based tactical SPY system built for turbulent markets.
The Hard Part Nobody Talks About
Buy-and-hold works beautifully when the market cooperates.
But markets do not always cooperate.
When selling gets heavy, when the headlines turn ugly and your portfolio starts bleeding, the advice you receive is always the same:
"Just hold. It will come back."
And eventually it does. But between now and eventually is a brutal stretch that most investors are completely unprepared for. Not just financially. Psychologically.
In 2008 the S&P 500 did not just end the year down 36%. At its worst point it had fallen over 50%. Most investors did not hold through that. They sold near the bottom, locked in the loss, and watched the recovery happen without them.
In 2022 it happened again. Down 18% on the year. But the intraday damage was significantly worse.
Whether you are a buy-and-hold investor watching your portfolio bleed, or an active trader who keeps getting the timing wrong in turbulent markets, these periods expose exactly what is missing from your approach.
For the active trader, Bear Hunter is not an admission that your approach is wrong. It is the tool that fills the one gap every active trader has. A mechanical, emotionless plan for the exact moments when the market is at its most punishing.
The problem is not that turbulent markets exist. The problem is that most investors have no plan for them. Your core holdings were built for the good times. Nobody handed you a different tool for the hard ones.
Bear Hunter: A Rules-Based SPY Trading System
Bear Hunter is a rules-based tactical system that trades one thing, the SPY, and does it only when the market earns its attention.
When the market is calm and trending, Bear Hunter sits in cash. Your regular portfolio does what it does. Nothing changes.
When turbulence hits, when the selling gets heavy, the headlines turn dark, and most investors freeze, Bear Hunter's mechanical rules identify conditions where the odds shift in your favor. It enters. It holds for a few days. It exits. Then it goes back to waiting.
No options. No shorting. No margin required. No guessing.
Just a clear, rules-based signal that tells you exactly when to act and when to do nothing.
It does not try to beat the market every day of the year. It does not need to. It only needs to show up for the hard part.
And historically, that has been enough.
The Equity Curve, also called the Portfolio Return Curve, illustrates the performance of the Bear Hunter System (green) compared to the market, represented by SPY (white). Dark shaded regions indicate periods when the system is actively in a position, while light green areas reflect times when it remains out of the market. Bear Hunter is designed to engage only during periods of elevated market volatility, as measured by the VIX. By participating selectively in these high stress environments, just 17.68% of all trading days, the system is able to generate returns approximately 30% greater than a traditional buy and hold approach. Click to enlarge.
Bear Hunter monthly and annual returns versus SPY buy and hold. Click to enlarge.
How Bear Hunter Performs Against the S&P 500
The Years That Matter Most
The S&P 500 has had five significant crash years since 1996. Here is what happened during those exact same periods:
| Year | SPY Return | Bear Hunter Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -10.54% | +16.56% |
| 2001 | -12.87% | +25.67% |
| 2002 | -22.81% | +25.45% |
| 2008 | -36.80% | +15.79% |
| 2022 | -18.17% | +22.81% |
These are not cherry-picked years. These are the five years the market punished buy-and-hold investors most severely. Bear Hunter was positive in every single one.
But This Is Not Just a Crisis Tool
2025 is the clearest proof of that.
The S&P 500 returned 17.70% in 2025, a strong bull market year by any measure. Bear Hunter returned 33.07%. Not by being in the market more. By being in it smarter, stepping in during the sharp, scary pullbacks that shook most traders out, capturing the rebound, and stepping back to cash.
Turbulent markets do not only happen in bear years. They happen inside bull years too. Bear Hunter is built for both.
The Drawdown Reality
Returns are only half the story. The other half is what you had to endure to get them.
At its worst historical moment, the S&P 500 fell over 55% from peak to trough. For a $500,000 portfolio that is a $275,000 loss, on paper, staring at you every morning.
Bear Hunter's worst historical drawdown was 12.38%.
That difference is not just mathematical. It is psychological. It is the difference between holding your plan and abandoning it at exactly the wrong moment.
Thirty Years. One Compounding Story.
Starting with $50,000 in 1996:
| Metric | SPY (Passive) | Bear Hunter (Tactical) |
|---|---|---|
| Ending Value | $777,873 | $2,280,478 |
| Annual Return (APR) | 9.58% | 13.58% |
| Max Drawdown | -55.20% | -12.38% |
| Time in Market | 100% | 17.68% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.68 | 1.32 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.95 | 2.48 |
Bear Hunter delivered more than double the ending wealth of a passive SPY investment while being in the market only 17.68% of the time.
The Math That Actually Matters
Most investors assume a good trading system wins the majority of its trades.
That assumption is wrong. And it is what separates amateur system design from professional system design.
Bear Hunter carries a Profit Factor of 2.75. For every $1.00 the system has historically lost, it has returned $2.75. That asymmetry, not a perfect win rate, is what drives thirty years of consistent compounding.
During a turbulent market the system does exactly what it was built to do. It hunts. Sometimes it takes a small loss probing for the right entry. But when it finds the move, the return more than covers the search.
That is not a flaw in the design. That is the design.
How the Bear Hunter SPY Trading System Works
No Black Box. Full Transparency.
When you purchase Bear Hunter you receive the complete system rules. Every indicator. Every trigger value. Including the non-conventional ones that took decades of research to identify. You own the math. You could run this yourself on your own platform if you wanted to.
We built the app so you do not have to.
The Daily Routine
Bear Hunter runs on a simple rhythm that fits around your normal life. After 9pm or the following morning, open the Bear Hunter app on your phone or desktop. No special software. No downloads. Just a web-based dashboard you can check from anywhere.
You will see one of four signals:
WAIT
Markets are calm. VIX is low. No setup is present. Go about your day.
BUY
Conditions are right. Enter your SPY position sized to your risk tolerance.
HOLD
You are in a trade. Stay put. Let the rules work.
SELL
Exit your position. Move back to cash. Wait for the next opportunity.
That is your entire relationship with Bear Hunter on most days. One word on a screen. Thirty seconds of your time.
When VIX is low, which is most of the time, you will see WAIT and move on with your day. When markets turn turbulent and conditions align with the system rules, the signal changes. That is when Bear Hunter earns its place in your toolkit.
When a trade does trigger, the average hold time is 3 to 4 days. Some trades close faster, some run longer depending on market conditions and when the exit conditions are met.
What You Are Trading
One instrument. The SPY ETF.
No options. No futures. No leveraged products. No shorting. Just the most liquid, widely held ETF in the world, available in any standard brokerage account or IRA without special permissions or margin agreements.
If you can buy a stock, you can run Bear Hunter.
Your Risk, Your Decision
Bear Hunter provides the signal. You control the size.
Want a conservative approach with shallower drawdowns? Trade smaller. Want to lean into the edge more aggressively? Size up. The system rules do not change. But how hard you push the throttle is entirely your call.
The signal is the engine. You are the pilot.
IRA Friendly
Because Bear Hunter is 100% long only, no margin, no options, no derivatives, it works inside a standard retirement account.
Many users run it as a dedicated cash sleeve within their IRA. It sits quietly during calm markets and deploys specifically when turbulence creates the opportunity. Your retirement account finally has a plan for the hard part.
Who Uses a Mechanical Trading System for Volatile Markets
The Buy-and-Hold Investor Who Has Lived Through at Least One Bear Market
You know the feeling. Watching years of compounding disappear in weeks. Being told to hold while your portfolio bleeds. Having no plan other than patience. Bear Hunter is the plan you did not have last time, ready for the next time.
The Active Retail Trader Who Keeps Getting the Timing Wrong in Turbulent Markets
You are not passive. You watch the market, you make moves, and in calm conditions you do fine. But when things get truly volatile, when the selling is relentless and the signals are confusing, your edge disappears. Bear Hunter replaces guesswork with rules in exactly those moments. This is not an admission that your approach is wrong. It is the tool that fills the one gap every active trader has.
The IRA Holder Who Wants a Crisis Plan for Their Retirement Account
Because Bear Hunter is 100% long only, SPY only, no margin, no options, it runs cleanly inside a standard retirement account. Allocate a cash sleeve. Let it sit quietly. When the market turns, it goes to work.
The Investor Who Wants to Own the System, Not Rent a Signal
When you purchase Bear Hunter you receive the complete rules. Every indicator. Every trigger value. Every threshold. The full historical trade log, every trade since 1996, fully auditable. You own the math permanently. The app makes it effortless but the knowledge is yours forever.
Who Bear Hunter Is Not For
Bear Hunter is not a get-rich-quick system. If you need every trade to be a winner, this is not the right tool.
It is not a system for every market condition. When markets are calm, Bear Hunter is in cash. If you need to be active every day, this is not the right fit.
It is not a black box you follow blindly. You will know exactly how it works. That transparency is a feature, not a footnote.
One Price. Forever.
In 2022, a year the S&P 500 fell 18%, a Bear Hunter user with $20,000 allocated to the system gained approximately $4,562. That same $20,000 sitting in SPY lost approximately $3,634.
That is an $8,196 swing on a $20,000 position. In a single year. Against a system that cost $497. One time.
And 2022 will not be the last difficult year the market hands us.
Lifetime License
$497
One payment. No renewals. No monthly fees. Ever.
- Complete system rules, every indicator and trigger value
- The full historical trade log, every trade since 1996, fully auditable
- Complete performance statistics for independent verification
- App login and setup instructions
- Suggested use cases and annotated chart examples
- Lifetime access to the Bear Hunter web app on any phone or desktop
- Four clear daily signals whenever the market demands attention
- Direct contact with Dave for setup support
One payment. Everything included. Nothing held back. Every bear market to come.
Secure Your Lifetime License for $497 →Every number on this page comes directly from a complete historical trade log you will own after purchase. 425 trades. Thirty years. Full transparency. You are not being asked to trust a chart. You are being handed the data to verify it yourself.
The Architect
Dave Johnson | System DeveloperI'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor who spent years managing tens of millions in client portfolios. I have been developing trading strategies for myself and clients for over 30 years.
Today I run a stable of more than two dozen mechanical trading systems, spanning micro to weekly timeframes, all executing automatically every day. Every entry, exit, and filter is defined in advance and tested against decades of real market data.
Bear Hunter is the result of that research, focused specifically on how markets behave during their hardest periods.
Read Dave's full story →Frequently Asked Questions
Do I need to be a programmer or know how to code?
Absolutely not. The Bear Hunter app is web-based and requires no software installation. Your entire daily routine is opening the app on your phone or desktop and reading one word. That is it.
Does this system use options, shorting, or margin?
No. Bear Hunter is 100% long only. It strictly buys and sells the standard SPY ETF. Because it does not rely on margin or derivatives it is perfectly suited for standard retirement accounts and IRAs.
How much time does the daily routine take?
Less than two minutes. After 9pm or the following morning, open the app, check the signal, and you are done. The goal is to remove emotion and save you time during exactly the market conditions when most investors make their worst decisions.
Does this only work when the market is crashing?
No. Bear Hunter is designed for any period of elevated market turbulence, whether that is a full bear market or the sharp pullbacks that happen inside bull markets. In 2025, a strong bull market year, Bear Hunter returned 33.07% versus the SPY's 17.70%. Turbulence is the opportunity, not just the crash.
What do I receive after purchase?
You receive a comprehensive Bear Hunter PDF containing the complete system rules, every indicator and trigger value, the full historical trade log since 1996, complete performance statistics, app login instructions, suggested use cases, and annotated chart examples. Everything is included. Nothing is held back.
Can I verify the historical performance myself?
Yes. That is exactly the point. You receive every historical trade going back to 1996 along with the complete system rules. You are not being asked to trust a chart. You are being handed the data and the math to verify it yourself.
Can I run this in my IRA?
Yes. Because Bear Hunter is long only, no margin, no options, no derivatives, it is fully compatible with standard retirement accounts. Many users run it as a dedicated cash sleeve within their IRA, dormant during calm markets and active when turbulence creates the opportunity.
What if I need help setting it up?
The documentation walks you through everything step by step. Dave's direct contact information is included with your purchase. You will not be left alone with a login link and a wish of good luck.
Your Portfolio Has a Plan for the Good Times.
Now It Has One for the Hard Times Too.
Secure Your Lifetime License for $497 →30 years of data. One simple signal. Built for the hard part.