Trading Time Machine Presents
Elite SPY Trading System
Two mechanical engines. One extraordinary result.
A rules-based SPY system that has outperformed buy and hold for over 32 years while carrying less than half the market's risk.
Annual subscription. Nightly email signals.
Two Numbers That Tell the Whole Story
The S&P 500 has returned roughly 9% per year over the long run. That number is well known. What is less talked about is the price you pay to earn it.
To collect that 9%, you had to watch your portfolio fall 55% in 2008 and 2009. You had to hold through a 34% collapse in 2020. You had to stomach an 18% loss in 2022. And you had to do all of that without flinching, without selling, without making a single mistake, for decades.
Most investors cannot do it. The research consistently shows that actual investor returns lag the market by several percentage points annually because people sell at the wrong time, usually near the bottom, and buy back in late.
The Elite SPY Trading System was built to solve both sides of that problem. To deliver returns that exceed the market and to do it on a smoother path that is genuinely possible to follow for the long term.
Over 32 years, Elite SPY has returned 18.61% annually against the S&P 500's 9.05%, while keeping its worst historical drawdown at 10.66% versus the market's 55.18%. More return. Less than one fifth the pain.
32 Years of Performance
Elite SPY Trading System versus SPY buy and hold, July 1993 to 2025, logarithmic scale. Click to enlarge.
What the Numbers Actually Mean
Starting with $50,000 in July 1993:
| Metric | SPY Buy and Hold | Elite SPY System |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Return (APR) | 9.05% | 18.61% |
| Max Drawdown | -55.18% | -10.66% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.67 | 1.94 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.95 | 4.35 |
| Beta | 1.0 | 0.44 |
| Alpha | N/A | 14.65 |
| Profit Factor | N/A | 2.28 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.16 | 1.74 |
Why These Numbers Matter
Most Investors Have Never Heard of the Sharpe Ratio. They Should Have.
Simple percentage return is the most misleading number in investing. Two systems can produce identical returns while one is ten times more painful to hold than the other. The Sharpe Ratio corrects for this by measuring return relative to the volatility required to achieve it.
Here is how the Elite SPY system's Sharpe of 1.94 stacks up against professional benchmarks:
Alpha of 14.65: What That Actually Means
Alpha is the return generated purely by the system's logic, independent of whether the market is up or down. The S&P 500 by definition has an alpha of zero. It simply returns what the market returns.
An alpha of 14.65 means the Elite SPY system is generating nearly 15% in excess return above the market through its own edge alone. Not through leverage. Not through luck. Through a repeatable, rules-based approach that has held up across 32 years of bull markets, bear markets, crashes, and recoveries.
That number is extraordinary. Most professional fund managers never achieve sustained positive alpha.
Beta of 0.44: Half the Market's Bumpiness
A Beta of 1.0 means you move exactly with the S&P 500. Every up day and every down day, in lockstep. Elite SPY's Beta of 0.44 means the system carries less than half the market's volatility. When the market drops 10%, the system historically experiences roughly a 4 to 5% move. That is not just a comfort metric. It is the difference between staying the course and abandoning your plan at exactly the wrong moment.
When the Market Gets Hard
The real test of any system is not how it performs in a bull market. Anyone can make money when everything is going up. The test is what happens when the market turns against you.
| Year | SPY Return | Elite SPY Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -10.54% | +6.15% |
| 2001 | -12.87% | +17.07% |
| 2002 | -22.81% | +12.03% |
| 2008 | -36.80% | +20.37% |
| 2022 | -18.17% | +12.82% |
Positive in every major crash year since 1993. Not by luck. By design.
And in strong bull years the system keeps pace. In 2025, while SPY returned 18.74%, Elite SPY returned 27.30%. The system does not sit out the good years to protect itself in the bad ones. It competes in both.
The Two Engines Behind the Results
Most trading systems are built around a single idea. One approach, one market condition, one set of rules. That simplicity is also a weakness. When conditions shift, single-engine systems stall.
Elite SPY runs two distinct mechanical subsystems simultaneously, each exploiting a different, independently verified market behavior. Together they create a system that performs across market conditions rather than depending on any one of them.
Engine 1: Trend ORP
Overnight Risk Premium / 50% of PortfolioThe S&P 500 has a well-documented overnight bias. The majority of its long run gains happen between the close and the following open, not during the trading day. The Trend ORP engine is built specifically to capture this premium.
When the market is in a systematically defined uptrend, this engine enters short term positions using limit orders placed before the open. It captures the overnight move and exits when strength conditions are met.
Average hold: 1.67 days
Win rate: 59.12%
Profit factor: 1.93
Total trades (32 years): 2,200+
Engine 2: Mean Reversion
Pullback Entries / 50% of PortfolioMarkets do not move in straight lines. Short term pullbacks within longer trends create high-probability entry points where the odds favor a bounce. The Mean Reversion engine identifies these conditions systematically and enters when they appear.
Unlike conventional approaches that exit at a price target or stop loss, this engine exits on strength. It waits for the rally, then sells into it. That exit logic is a core reason the system's numbers look the way they do.
Average hold: 5.84 days
Win rate: 68.56%
Profit factor: 2.46
Frequency: ~2 entries per month
Three States of Exposure
Because each engine controls 50% of the portfolio independently, the system is always in one of three clearly defined states. There is no ambiguity about your exposure at any point.
0%
Cash
Both engines are sidelined. No active trades. Full cash position.
50%
Half In
One engine has an active trade. Half the portfolio is working.
100%
All In
Both engines are in positions simultaneously. Full deployment.
How It Works Day to Day
Three Minutes a Day. That Is It.
The Elite SPY system is end of day. After the market closes, the system evaluates all conditions and generates the signals for the following morning. You receive a nightly email telling you exactly what to do before the open.
There is nothing to monitor during the trading day. No intraday charts. No news feeds. No decisions to make while the market is moving. Your job is to place any orders before the open and go about your day.
Each email covers both engines. On any given evening you may have zero, one, or two entry orders to place. The maximum is two, one per engine, and that is the most complex your morning ever gets. Each signal is one of the following:
On a busy evening you place two orders before the open and you are done. On a quiet evening you read the email, see nothing actionable, and move on. Either way your entire daily commitment is measured in minutes, not hours.
Long Only. IRA Friendly.
Elite SPY is 100% long only. No shorting, no options, no futures, no margin. It buys SPY and it sells SPY. That is the entire universe of transactions.
Because of this, the system runs cleanly inside standard retirement accounts including traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, and Solo 401(k)s. Many subscribers run it as a dedicated allocation within their retirement account, letting it work alongside their core holdings without any special permissions or account structures.
The IRA Compounding Advantage
Running a high-frequency system like Elite SPY inside a tax-advantaged account is not just convenient. It is mathematically significant. Short-term capital gains from frequent trading are taxed at ordinary income rates in a standard brokerage account, creating a meaningful drag on compounding over time.
Inside a Roth IRA, every dollar of profit is reinvested without any tax friction. Over a 20 to 30 year horizon at 18.61% annual returns, that difference compounds into a very large number.
Who Elite SPY Is Built For
This system is genuinely exceptional. Not in a marketing sense. In the sense that after 30 years of building and studying mechanical trading systems, across quantitative communities and professional system developer networks, nothing in this class of system has matched it. A Sharpe of 1.94 sustained over 32 years. Positive in every major crash year. Alpha of 14.65. These are not ordinary numbers.
To make the annual subscription worthwhile, a subscriber should have at least $50,000 allocated to the system. At that level the historical returns make the math obvious. Below that the subscription cost represents too large a percentage of the potential gain. Above it, the compounding becomes genuinely life-changing over time.
The Serious Long-Term Investor Who Wants More Than Market Returns
You understand compounding. You know that 18% annually over 20 years produces a fundamentally different outcome than 9%. You are not looking for excitement or a trading thrill. You want a proven, systematic edge you can run quietly alongside everything else in your portfolio for the next decade and beyond.
The IRA Holder Who Wants Their Retirement Account Working Harder
Your 401(k) is on autopilot in index funds. That is fine. But there is a portion of your retirement savings that could be doing considerably more. Elite SPY runs inside a standard IRA without any special account features. Allocate a sleeve of $50,000 or more, follow the signals, and let tax-free compounding do its work over time. At 18.61% annually inside a Roth, the numbers over 20 years are not modest.
The Active Trader Who Wants a Mechanical Anchor in Their Portfolio
You make your own trades. You have your own ideas. But you also know that discretionary trading has an emotional component that mechanical systems do not. Elite SPY provides a rules-based foundation that keeps a meaningful portion of your capital working systematically regardless of what your opinion is on any given day.
The Busy Professional Who Cannot Watch the Market All Day
Three minutes before the market opens. That is your entire time commitment. The system was designed specifically for people who have better things to do during the trading day than watch a screen. The work is done before the open. You are done until tomorrow's email.
Who Elite SPY Is Not For
This is not a day trading system. If you want to be in and out of positions multiple times a day, this is not the right tool.
It is not a system for people who need to override signals with their own judgment. The edge comes from following the rules every single time. Selectively applying a mechanical system is not running a mechanical system.
It is not a guaranteed path to any specific return. Past performance is real and verifiable across 32 years. Future performance is not guaranteed.
Annual Returns vs. SPY: Every Year Since 1993
The monthly return table is where systems either prove themselves or fall apart. Thirty-two years of data with nowhere to hide. Look at the negative years for SPY and where Elite SPY was in the same period. Look at the frequency and depth of the bad months. Then make your own judgment.
Elite SPY monthly and annual returns versus SPY benchmark. Click to enlarge.
Annual Subscription
In 2022, a year SPY fell 18%, Elite SPY returned 12.82%. On a $25,000 allocation that is a swing of roughly $7,700 compared to holding SPY. The annual subscription cost is $947.
One year of signals costs less than a single month of avoided drawdown on a modest position.
Annual License
$947
Per year. Renews annually. No refunds.
- 12 months of nightly email signal alerts with exact instructions for the following morning
- Both engine signals delivered together in a single daily email
- Full system backtest analysis and methodology
- Complete historical trade data since July 1993, fully auditable
- Access to the subscriber section of TradingTimeMachine.com
- Direct contact with Dave for setup support and questions
- All system updates and improvements during your subscription period
Signals delivered every evening after market close. Your entire daily routine is three minutes before the open.
Subscribe Now for $947 / Year →Every performance number on this page comes directly from a complete historical backtest spanning 32 years. Full performance statistics are provided before purchase so you can evaluate the system thoroughly. The complete historical trade log is available to subscribers in the dedicated subscriber section of TradingTimeMachine.com.
The Architect
Dave Johnson | System DeveloperI'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor who spent years managing tens of millions in client portfolios. I have been developing trading strategies for myself and clients for over 30 years.
Today I run a stable of more than two dozen mechanical trading systems, spanning micro to weekly timeframes, all executing automatically every day. Every entry, exit, and filter is defined in advance and tested against decades of real market data.
The Elite SPY Trading System represents over a decade of live performance and three decades of development experience concentrated into a single, elegant mechanical approach.
Read Dave's full story →Frequently Asked Questions
How are signals delivered?
By email each evening after market close. The email tells you exactly what to do at the following morning's opening bell for each engine. Your entire daily routine is reading the email and placing any orders before the open. Three minutes maximum.
Do I need to watch the market during the day?
No. The system is entirely end of day. All signals are generated after the close and all orders are placed before the open. Once your orders are in, you are done until the next evening's email.
Does this use options, shorting, or margin?
No. Elite SPY is 100% long only. It buys and sells the standard SPY ETF and nothing else. No derivatives, no leverage, no exotic instruments. If you can buy a stock you can run this system.
Can I run this in my IRA?
Yes. Because the system is long only with no margin or options, it is fully compatible with standard IRAs, Roth IRAs, and Solo 401(k)s. Many subscribers run it as a dedicated allocation within a retirement account specifically to benefit from tax-free compounding on the returns.
What is the minimum account size?
There is no minimum. The system trades SPY which can be bought in any quantity. Smaller accounts will see smaller absolute dollar returns but the percentage performance is identical regardless of account size.
Is there a trial period or refund policy?
There is no trial period. The subscription is an annual commitment. Complete performance statistics and 32-year backtest data are provided before purchase so you can thoroughly evaluate the system independently. The full historical trade log is available to subscribers in the dedicated subscriber section of TradingTimeMachine.com.
How long has the system been live?
The backtest runs from July 1993. The system has been live and running in real accounts for nearly a decade. The live performance has remained consistent with the historical backtest, which is the most important validation a mechanical system can have.
What if I miss a signal?
Dave is available directly by email for any questions about signals or execution. The subscriber section of TradingTimeMachine.com also contains the complete trade history so you always have a reference point for what the system is doing and why.
32 Years of Proof.
Three Minutes a Day.
Subscribe Now for $947 / Year →Nightly email signals. Annual commitment.
Not Financial Advice: The Elite SPY Trading System and all associated materials are provided for educational and informational purposes only. Dave Johnson is not a registered financial advisor, broker, or dealer. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Hypothetical and simulated performance results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.