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Sorry for the sporadic posts lately. I am relocating to Italy, and the preparation for that has consumed most of my bandwidth. More on that at the end. First, what actually matters right now. The market is down 0.02% on the year , with some serious volatility thrown in. Bear Hunter is up 4.43%. What is Bear Hunter? Bear Hunter is a rules-based tactical SPY system built for one specific environment: turbulent markets. When volatility is low, it sits in cash. When the VIX environment shifts and conditions align, it steps in, holds a few days, and exits. Clean. Mechanical. No emotion involved. No options. No shorting. No margin. Just SPY, long only, in the moments when the edge is highest. 2026 So Far The early months of this year have been exactly the kind of environment Bear Hunter was built for. Elevated volatility. wide range days, headline-driven tape. Bear Hunter does not wait for things to settle down. It hunts inside the chaos. The trades speak for themselves. Every trade Bear Hunter has executed this year is in the screenshot above. You can judge the entries and exits yourself. Five trades into 2026 and the system is already behaving almost exactly as the backtest predicts. Three winners, two losers. 60% win rate, same as the historical profile across 400-plus trades. The winners averaged 1.91% and the losers averaged 0.82%, compared to the historical averages of 2.56% and 1.49%. Pretty close for five trades. That is actually the cool part about rigorous backtesting done right. It does not just tell you what happened in the past. It gives you a reasonable picture of what to expect going forward, even in small samples. If you want to go deeper, the full trade log going back to 1996, every drawdown, every stat, all of it is publicly available here: Full Trade history and Stats Nothing hidden. Nothing cherry-picked. Just the data. The App Got a Full Rebuild On top of the live performance, the Bear Hunter app (runs in any browser) just came out of a complete redesign. Dark interface, clean signal display, fully mobile-friendly. The daily routine has always been simple and now it looks the part too. After market close, open the app, read the signal, close the app. That is the whole job. Want the Full Picture? Everything you need to evaluate Bear Hunter, the 30-year equity curve, compounding table, worst drawdown stats, the purchase link, all of it lives on the Bear Hunter page at TradingTimeMachine.com. Go take a look. And while you are there, I would genuinely love your feedback. Does the page tell the story clearly? Is anything missing or confusing? Is there something you would want to see before pulling the trigger that is not there? Drop a comment below or reach out directly. This product is newly launched and real feedback from real traders is worth more to me than any marketing copy I could write. One More Thing Life stuff is in full swing as I get ready to make my move to Italy. We are heading to the Puglia region, right in the heel of the boot, and I cannot wait. A winter without snow! Sun-drenched olive groves. The turquoise waters of the Adriatic. A quiet piazza and a glass of local Primitivo with my best friend and wife (the same person - lol). That is the dream and it is finally coming together. Bear with me (pun absolutely intended) while I get the pieces in place. Once I land there I will have far more time to write about backtests, trading systems, and whatever the markets are throwing at us. Until then, thanks for hanging in there. Have a Great Day! Dave Johnson TradingTimeMachine.com via Trading Time Machine https://ift.tt/7pV34zS
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Dave JohnsonI'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor and quantitative system developer with over 30 years of experience building and trading mechanical systems. These days I focus on rules-based research, honest backtests, and sharing what the data actually shows. Archives
August 2026
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