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Source: backtest.substack.com​

Forecast for 11/14/25 - Weakness Did Not Push Us To The Green

11/13/2025

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It was a rough day across the board, driven by growing uncertainty around the Fed’s rate cut trajectory and delays in key economic data due to the shutdown. Normally, a strong down day nudges at least one of the gauges into the green—especially the longer-term ones like the 3- or 5-day. Not this time.
  • 2 Day Rating: 0.13 — Signaling a balance between bearish and bullish historical matches
  • 3 Day Rating: 2.86 — Leaning to the positive side based on the historical matches, but not a sweet spot yet
  • 5 Day Rating: 3.02 — Slight upside bias but nothing to write home about
The breadth weakness under the surface is tricking the algo into thinking we’re deeper in the hole than we actually are. That disconnect is worth watching. Friday could be pivotal.
Rest up, tomorrow’s setup may bring some clarity.

Have a Great Night!

DJ
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    Dave Johnson

    I'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor and quantitative system developer with over 30 years of experience building and trading mechanical systems. These days I focus on rules-based research, honest backtests, and sharing what the data actually shows.

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