Forecast for 11/17/25 - Pushed Solidly Green

Going forward I am going to post the blog posts exclusively over at Substack. The image capabilities with the Weebly editor are cumbersome. In tonight's post the image showing all the historical trades is cutoff (there are way more matches). Anyway, use the substack link.

You can check the blog for free at: ​https://backtest.substack.com

The short term gauges are leaning solidly bullish and honestly, that caught me off guard. I went back and reviewed the historically matched SPY dates, expecting a few outliers to skew the signal. Sure enough, February and March 1999 had some monster gains, but even without those, the remaining matches held their own.

3-Day Signal Snapshot

This one stood out, so here’s the breakdown:

• 74.07% win rate (20 out of 27 matches)
• Average winner: +1.85%
• Average loser: –1.52%

Below are the historically matching days.