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Source: backtest.substack.com​

SPY Short-Term Forecast and Trading Outlook for Friday, Oct 17, 2025

10/16/2025

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Markets stayed choppy today as traders juggled U.S.–China trade worries with solid earnings and ongoing AI momentum. Our overnight forecast pointed to a slightly bullish session today. More of the same for tomorrow for the 1 day forecast. The 2-day outlook has now tipped positive too, while the 3-, 5-, and 10-day indicators are riding high in strongly bullish territory. Still, the market didn't deliver. We opened strong but got hit with a sharp afternoon selloff, just another reminder that sentiment can flip on a dime when headlines are driving the action. The bigger picture still looks bullish though. When things get this choppy, pullbacks tend to be buying opportunities more than red flags. Stay sharp, be selective, and stick with what's working.
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    Dave Johnson

    I'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor and quantitative system developer with over 30 years of experience building and trading mechanical systems. These days I focus on rules-based research, honest backtests, and sharing what the data actually shows.

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