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Source: backtest.substack.com​

SPY Short-Term Forecast and Trading Outlook for Monday, Oct 13, 2025

10/12/2025

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$SPY finally picked up some real downside momentum after the Trump tweet on China tariffs. The signals have been leaning negative for about a week, and it looks like that move finally showed up in price.
The 1-day forecast for Monday is flashing solid green. As I’m writing this, S&P 500 futures are up around +1.37%. Since the forecast measures performance from tomorrow’s open, some of that upside could already be baked in during the overnight session.
Looking past Monday, most of the gauges are hanging out in the yellow zone with a slight bearish lean. Monday’s close should give a clearer read on whether that tilt strengthens or starts to fade as the week plays out.
 

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    Dave Johnson

    I'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor and quantitative system developer with over 30 years of experience building and trading mechanical systems. These days I focus on rules-based research, honest backtests, and sharing what the data actually shows.

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