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Source: backtest.substack.com​

SPY Short-Term Forecast and Trading Outlook for Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025

10/7/2025

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Today’s one day forecast is sitting below -10. Yikes.
The algo only found 15 historical matches to today’s setup in SPY — so it’s a smaller sample, but still informative.
A few quick notes:
  • Zero days saw a gain greater than +1% (from tomorrow’s open to the next open)
  • Four days had declines greater than 1%, with two of those dropping over 2%
  • That concentration of deeper losses is what’s pushing the gauge solidly into the red today
If you trade intraday, it’s worth watching for bearish continuation patterns — momentum could stay heavy through the session. As always you can check the updated forecast for the 1,2,3,5,and 10 days on the Trading Forecast page.
Trade well,​
Dave Johnson
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    Dave Johnson

    I'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor and quantitative system developer with over 30 years of experience building and trading mechanical systems. These days I focus on rules-based research, honest backtests, and sharing what the data actually shows.

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