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Source: backtest.substack.com​

SPY Short-Term Forecast and Trading Outlook for Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025

10/14/2025

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Alright, traders, if you caught that high reading yesterday and then saw this morning’s gap down, you were staring at a textbook setup for a long. If you took it, well played, you nabbed some serious ka-ching. That’s the kind of opportunity these forecasts can highlight when the market’s dropping hints.

Looking ahead, the short-term probabilities over the next day or two suggest things could lean to the upside, but don’t sleep on it. The 3- and 5-day returns are shaping up nicely, tilting toward solid gains. That said, we’re still stuck inside Friday’s big red bar, which keeps the chart looking a bit messy. 

And, as always, keep X open for any Trump tweets. One post could send us ripping higher or cratering in a hurry. Size your positions smart and stay ready to adjust on the fly.
See you in the trenches tomorrow. 
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    Dave Johnson

    I'm Dave Johnson, a former investment advisor and quantitative system developer with over 30 years of experience building and trading mechanical systems. These days I focus on rules-based research, honest backtests, and sharing what the data actually shows.

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